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This is the live question that starts the workflow: Runes finds the active Mentions event with a matching Gemini buy insight before generating the trade direction.
The scheduled job pulls a live Mentions event, runs the Gemini buy insight, and stores the report that feeds the decision railroad.
Mentions market with a matching AI buy insight.
Gemini prices direction from live market context.
The response carries the JSON the app can execute.
As of Monday, August 3, 2026, at 10:01 AM UTC, the most likely outcome is that President Donald Trump will use the words "Ceasefire", "Fraud", "Socialist / Socialism", "Uranium", and "Golf / Golfer / Golfing" before August 10, 2026. The optimal strategy is to BUY YES on these highly probable terms—prioritizing the underpriced "Golf" and "Uranium" contracts—and BUY NO on clearly inactive topics like "UFO / UAP" and "Prediction Market".
President Donald Trump's public agenda for the week of August 3 to August 10, 2026, is heavily shaped by intense international diplomacy, domestic enforcement campaigns, and high-profile sporting events. High-stakes bilateral negotiations between the United States and Iran are scheduled to begin on Monday afternoon (August 3) to discuss reopening the Strait of Hormuz and tackling nuclear disarmament. Because these negotiations directly focus on the status of Iran's nuclear material and the resumption of the June truce, Trump is virtually certain to publicly use the words "Ceasefire" and "Uranium". This is further reinforced by the recently signed U.S.-Saudi Arabia nuclear agreement, which remains a massive topic of congressional debate regarding uranium enrichment.
On the domestic front, the administration's active "War on Fraud" targeting federal programs—along with Trump's habitual branding of media snubs and political opposition as "fraud"—guarantees frequent references to "Fraud" and "Socialist / Socialism". Crucially, the LIV Golf New York tournament is returning to Trump National Golf Club Bedminster this weekend from August 6 to August 9, 2026. As a passionate player who just claimed a double club championship at the venue over the weekend, Trump's active promotion of the event makes his public usage of "Golf / Golfer / Golfing" an absolute lock. Conversely, niche topics like "UFO / UAP" and technical jargon like "Prediction Market" lack active catalysts this week, making them highly confident "NO" outcomes.
| Choice | Market Ticker | Model View | Expected Outcome | Trade Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barack Hussein Obama | KXTRUMPSAY-26AUG10-BARA | Medium | UNCERTAIN | NO TRADE |
| Golf / Golfer / Golfing | KXTRUMPSAY-26AUG10-GOLF | High | YES | BUY YES |
| Uranium | KXTRUMPSAY-26AUG10-URAN | High | YES | BUY YES |
| UFO / UAP | KXTRUMPSAY-26AUG10-UFO | Low | NO | BUY NO |
| Kamala | KXTRUMPSAY-26AUG10-KAMA | Low | NO | BUY NO |
| Golden Dome | KXTRUMPSAY-26AUG10-GOLD | Low | NO | BUY NO |
| Zohran / Mamdani | KXTRUMPSAY-26AUG10-ZOHR | Low | NO | BUY NO |
| Ceasefire | KXTRUMPSAY-26AUG10-CEAS | High | YES | BUY YES |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | KXTRUMPSAY-26AUG10-CRYP | Low | NO | BUY NO |
| Prediction Market / Predictive Market | KXTRUMPSAY-26AUG10-PRED | Low | NO | BUY NO |
| Fraud | KXTRUMPSAY-26AUG10-FRAU | High | YES | BUY YES |
| Socialist / Socialism | KXTRUMPSAY-26AUG10-SOCI | High | YES | BUY YES |
The strongest payoff asymmetry on the board is Golf / Golfer / Golfing (GOLF) at 27¢/29¢. The market has severely discounted this choice, presumably because Trump's Truth Social post on Sunday celebrating his Bedminster Club Championship victory did not explicitly write the word "golf". However, the prestigious LIV Golf New York tournament starts on his Bedminster course this Thursday (August 6). As a major, vocal booster of the league, Trump's active coverage and commentary of the event means he is mathematically certain to utter "Golf" before August 10, presenting a massive mispricing edge. Additionally, Uranium (URAN) at 35¢/37¢ has great upside given that the critical U.S.-Iran negotiations starting Monday afternoon revolve directly around nuclear enrichment stockpiles.
Our strategy is to construct a diversified, high-yield multi-position setup that exploits the independent multi-outcome choice structure of the weekly Trump Speech market. We recommend aggressively buying underpriced YES contracts on "Golf / Golfer / Golfing" and "Uranium" to capture massive upside, while collecting steady yield by buying NO on inactive, long-shot terms like "UFO / UAP" and "Prediction Market". This balanced structure captures premium across both directions of the event spectrum.
{
"event_info": {
"event_ticker": "KXTRUMPSAY-26AUG10",
"event_title": "Will Trump say \"Golf / Golfer / Golfing\" before Aug 10, 2026?",
"event_choice_type": "independent_multi_outcome_choice",
"event_outcome": "Trump is highly likely to mention Golf, Uranium, Ceasefire, Fraud, and Socialist.",
"confidence_score": 93,
"trade_summary": "Buy YES on GOLF, URAN, CEAS, FRAU, and SOCI; Buy NO on UFO, KAMA, GOLD, ZOHR, CRYP, and PRED; No trade on BARA.",
"justification": "Under the independent multi-outcome choice structure, we exploit massive underpricing on GOLF (due to the LIV Golf Bedminster event this weekend) and URAN (due to the Iran nuclear talks starting Monday afternoon), while collecting solid premium on unlikely terms by buying NO."
},
"market_breakdown": {
"KXTRUMPSAY-26AUG10-BARA": {
"market_direction": "no_trade"
},
"KXTRUMPSAY-26AUG10-GOLF": {
"market_direction": "buy_yes"
},
"KXTRUMPSAY-26AUG10-URAN": {
"market_direction": "buy_yes"
},
"KXTRUMPSAY-26AUG10-UFO": {
"market_direction": "buy_no"
},
"KXTRUMPSAY-26AUG10-KAMA": {
"market_direction": "buy_no"
},
"KXTRUMPSAY-26AUG10-GOLD": {
"market_direction": "buy_no"
},
"KXTRUMPSAY-26AUG10-ZOHR": {
"market_direction": "buy_no"
},
"KXTRUMPSAY-26AUG10-CEAS": {
"market_direction": "buy_yes"
},
"KXTRUMPSAY-26AUG10-CRYP": {
"market_direction": "buy_no"
},
"KXTRUMPSAY-26AUG10-PRED": {
"market_direction": "buy_no"
},
"KXTRUMPSAY-26AUG10-FRAU": {
"market_direction": "buy_yes"
},
"KXTRUMPSAY-26AUG10-SOCI": {
"market_direction": "buy_yes"
}
}
}The JSON is the bridge between the LLM and the algorithmic app: each ticker gets a deterministic direction, then the execution engine can route YES or NO trades without rereading the report.
Buy YES on GOLF, URAN, CEAS, FRAU, and SOCI; Buy NO on UFO, KAMA, GOLD, ZOHR, CRYP, and PRED; No trade on BARA.
The report is only the first layer. Runes converts LLM analysis into deterministic instructions the algorithm can price, validate, execute, and monitor.
Gemini reviews the live event, prices, liquidity, and evidence behind the contract.
Structured output maps each ticker into a deterministic YES or NO instruction.
The algorithm enters only when direction, sizing, and risk rules align.
SYSTEM VITALS
TODAY
7 / 4
live session pulse
WEEK
967 / 202
rolling execution window
MONTH
2,595 / 493
deployed contract count
P/L Rate
win probability calibration
Avg Trade Length
short-duration contract flow
Win Rate
qualified setups closed green
Monthly Equity Change
capital efficiency vs prior month
Runes lets you move from a Kalshi event into its market children, inspect the odds and implied chances, then create the contracts you want to trade. You can build manually through the UI while Runes keeps the position, PnL, and market movement under active monitoring.
Start from a live event, review its child markets, and choose the exact contracts you want to create.
Use the UI to configure YES or NO exposure, sizing, targets, and contract-specific risk rules.
Visualize price, odds, implied probability, volume, and movement across each market child.
Track realized and unrealized PnL, define exits, and keep risk visible as each contract moves.
Compare contract behavior against event metadata, market state, and live pricing signals.
Runes keeps watching created contracts after entry, surfacing changes that matter for execution and risk.
Runes isn't just about executing trades; it's about fostering a mindful trading experience. Equip yourself with tools and resources to navigate the emotional challenges of trading, promoting resilience and clear-headed decision-making.
Capture your trading journey, learn from experiences, and refine your approach with Runes's integrated reflective journaling feature.
Personalize your trading strategies with detailed notes, ensuring clarity and adaptability in your decision-making process.
Stay focused and organized with timely reminders, helping you stay on top of important market events and trading tasks.
Start each trading day with a dose of inspiration and motivation from Runes's daily messages, fostering a positive mindset for success.
Maintain accountability and track your progress through regular check-ins, facilitating reflection and continuous improvement in your trading journey.
Protect your investment and manage risk effectively by setting automated shutdown limits to prevent further losses beyond your predefined threshold.
Access a wide range of automated trading algorithms, including Mean Reversion, Momentum, Breakout, and specialized Insider Trading strategies.
Our system executes trades with unparalleled precision and speed, capitalizing on market inefficiencies instantly.
Deploy new strategies rapidly with ease of configuration, adapting to market shifts with unprecedented agility.
Monitor and act upon public disclosures from U.S. senators, identifying high-conviction trades with a proven track record.
Fine-tune your trading approach by adjusting strategy parameters to adapt to changing market conditions and personal preferences.
Designed for horizontal scaling of application instances and efficient queue worker management to handle increasing trading volumes and data loads.
Utilizes Laravel Events and Redis-backed Queues for asynchronous processing of high-volume data, algorithmic executions, and notifications.
Leverages Laravel Echo with Websockets for low-latency market data streaming and instant updates, ensuring you're always informed.
Built on the Laravel Framework (PHP) for a robust, scalable, and maintainable backend, enabling rapid feature development and a clear, modular architecture.
Analyze and refine your trading strategies with AI-driven insights. Runes evaluates entry/exit points, performance metrics, and risk exposure.
Leverage real-time AI analysis to determine optimal buy and sell opportunities using market data, technical indicators, and sentiment analysis.
AI evaluates after-hours activity, macroeconomic conditions, and volatility trends to help traders decide whether to hold overnight or exit at market close.
AI detects high-probability breakouts before they occur by analyzing House Trading, volume trends, and momentum shifts.
Capitalize on overextended price movements with AI-driven pullback detection and mean reversion analysis.
Runes's AI dynamically adjusts MACD, RSI, Bollinger Bands, and Stochastic Oscillator parameters for maximum accuracy.
AI analyzes SEC filings, Senate and House trading disclosures, and institutional movements, allowing traders to anticipate market shifts.
AI extracts insights from breaking news, earnings reports, and global events, ranking their market impact in real-time.
Runes analyzes earnings reports, macroeconomic events, and sector-specific developments, adjusting trading strategies in real-time.
Monitor profit/loss trends, risk-reward ratios, volatility exposure, and execution efficiency — AI helps quantify risk and refine trade sizing.
Runes detects underperforming strategies and applies AI-powered adjustments to redeem and optimize execution.
AI automates profit and loss management schedules, ensuring dynamic reallocation of capital based on evolving market conditions.
Automatically set stop-loss orders based on predefined conditions to limit potential losses in your trading strategies.
Implement trailing stop-loss functionality, automatically adjusting stop-loss levels as your strategy's profits increase.
Protect your profits with automated stop-order protection, triggering sell orders when specific profit targets are met.
Set automated take profit targets, allowing your strategies to capitalize on profit opportunities without manual intervention.
Enable set stop loss after buys configurations, automating profit-taking when specific conditions align with your strategy.
Automatically apply loss mitigation strategies to limit potential losses and safeguard your capital during market downturns.
Set automated take profit targets, allowing your strategies to capitalize on profit opportunities without manual intervention.
Implement automated redemption strategies to identify and redeem underperforming strategies, optimizing your portfolio.
Create and execute automated schedules for profit and loss management, streamlining the optimization of your trading strategies.
Identify and filter "in-play" Equities based on broad criteria and account-specific trading rules.
Retrieve personalized settings including maximum capital allocation and acceptable loss percentages per strategy.
Evaluate Equities against defined entry requirements, including technical indicators and AI-based logic.
Record all relevant parameters upon successful evaluation, initiating the new algorithmic strategy.
Adjust capital per strategy based on historical performance and overall market sentiment for optimized exposure.
Safeguard gains by automatically placing sell orders if profit retraces after reaching a predefined threshold.
Minimize losses by exiting positions below a specified loss threshold with a continued downward trend.
Monitor and sell losing strategies within a "redeemable range" to minimize overall capital loss.
Automatically sell positions when predefined profit or loss targets are met, ensuring disciplined exits.
Utilize advanced technical analysis (EMA, RSI, Pivot Point, MACD) for dynamic and timely loss exits.
Configure strategies to automatically sell at predetermined dates and times, supporting both full and partial quantities.
Receive instant alerts via Discord and other channels on strategy status, profit protection, loss reduction, and exits.
Automatically record every trade executed by Runes, ensuring a comprehensive and accurate history of all your transactions.
Access granular details for each trade, including symbols, average positions, fill prices, and execution times.
Monitor your equity and profits with crystal clarity, allowing you to understand your portfolio's performance at a glance.
Review market conditions at the exact moment of your trades, providing valuable context for learning and refinement.
Utilize advanced filters to analyze trade performance by date, strategy type, market conditions, and other key metrics.
Gain insights from automated trade data to identify successful patterns and areas for improvement.
Maintain comprehensive audit trails for all trading activities, ensuring regulatory compliance and transparency.
Export your trade history and performance data for external analysis or record-keeping purposes.
Runes is an automated prediction market trading platform that allows users to create and execute trading strategies using AI, algorithms, and real-time data. It simplifies trading by automating buy and sell decisions based on predefined criteria.
Absolutely! Runes is designed for traders of all experience levels. We offer user-friendly features and resources to help beginners get started while providing advanced tools for seasoned traders.
Runes supports a wide range of trading strategies, including manual and automated ones. You can set strategies based on technical indicators, price movements, and more to suit your trading style.
Setting automated buy and sell schedules is easy on Runes. Define your parameters, such as profit targets and stop-loss levels, and let the platform handle the rest.
Yes, Runes offers robust risk management features. You can set stop-loss orders, define risk tolerances, and protect your investments while trading.
Runes uses Kalshi's APIs for executing buys and sells, ensuring seamless and reliable order execution on the prediction market.
Absolutely. Runes provides real-time alerts and notifications for strategy events and important market developments, keeping you informed at all times.
Runes offers detailed performance tracking, including statistics and insights. You can analyze profit and loss, strategy efficiency, and historical data to evaluate your strategies.
Yes, we prioritize data security. Runes employs industry-standard encryption and security measures to protect your data and account information.
To get started, sign up for an account on Runes's platform, explore the features, and begin creating and executing your trading strategies. We also offer resources and tutorials to help you on your trading journey.
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